Most new fans hit the same wall the first time they open a sportsbook before fight night: they see something like Jon Jones -250 next to Stipe Miocic +210 and have no idea what either number means.
This is, by far, the most common question asked by anyone betting on UFC for the first time. Let's break it down in plain English. No jargon, no fluff — just what you actually need to know before you place a bet.
Plus and minus: the basics
UFC odds, like most US sportsbook odds, use what's called moneyline format. Every fighter is shown with a number next to either a minus sign or a plus sign.
Minus means favorite. This fighter is expected to win. Plus means underdog. This fighter is expected to lose. That part is simple. The number itself tells you something more useful: how much you stand to win, and how much risk you're taking on to win it.
Reading the minus number
The minus number tells you how much you need to risk to win 100 dollars.
Jon Jones at -250 means you would need to bet 250 dollars to win 100 dollars in profit. You would get 350 dollars back total, your original 250 plus the 100 profit.
You don't have to bet exactly 250 dollars. The ratio simply scales. Bet 25 dollars and you win 10. Bet 500 dollars and you win 200. The bigger the minus number, the heavier the favorite, and the less you win relative to what you put up.
Reading the plus number
The plus number tells you how much you win if you bet 100 dollars.
Stipe Miocic at +210 means a 100 dollar bet wins 210 dollars in profit. You would get 310 dollars back total.
The same scaling applies. Bet 10 dollars and win 21. Bet 50 dollars and win 105. The bigger the plus number, the bigger the underdog, and the bigger the potential payout.
Quick reference
| Odds | What $100 Wins | What You Risk for $100 Profit |
|---|---|---|
| -500 | $20 | $500 |
| -250 | $40 | $250 |
| -150 | $66.67 | $150 |
| +150 | $150 | $100 |
| +250 | $250 | $100 |
| +500 | $500 | $100 |
Why the numbers move
Odds are not fixed the moment a fight is announced. They shift constantly leading up to fight night, and the movement itself is information.
Betting volume is the biggest driver. When a large wave of money comes in on one fighter, sportsbooks adjust the line to balance their own risk. News and injuries move lines too. A reported injury, a rough weight cut, or a late coaching change can shift a number quickly. Sharp money, meaning bets placed by professional bettors, can move a line on its own, sometimes before any public news has broken at all.
This is why the odds you see a week out can look nothing like the odds right before the walkout. Tracking that shift, often called line movement, is one of the simplest ways to start understanding where the smart money is going. We cover this in more depth in our line movement guide.
Odds are not a guarantee
A fighter sitting at -300 is not a lock. It means the market believes they are more likely to win than not, nothing more. Upsets happen constantly in MMA, more than in almost any other sport.
This is exactly why value matters more than simply backing favorites every time. A fighter at +250 only needs to win roughly 29 percent of the time for that bet to be profitable over the long run. Heavy favorites still lose 20 to 30 percent of the time depending on the matchup. Reading odds correctly is step one. Understanding whether the price being offered actually represents value is what separates long-term winners from everyone else.
The bottom line
Minus means favorite, you bet more to win less. Plus means underdog, you bet less to win more. Odds shift due to money flow, news, and sharp action. And the number itself reflects implied probability, not certainty.
Once you're comfortable reading a moneyline, the next step is understanding why a worse-looking number can sometimes be the smarter bet. That's where concepts like ROI and closing line value come in, both of which we break down elsewhere on the blog.
— Eddie, Data Scientist · Fight Metrics Pro
18+ only. Sports betting involves risk. You may lose money. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
MORE FROM FIGHT METRICS PRO